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Winners, losers, and what’s next
The BBB provides for ~$4.1 trillion of savings, $570 billion of which comes from an accelerated sunsetting of the clean energy tax credits (ITC and PTC) for projects not under construction in 2026 . This reduces developers’ return on investment in some markets, fundamentally altering how, where, and whether new solar projects are developed, reshaping many of the regulations revised and established by the Inflation Reduction Act. This is not a death sentence for solar. Instead, it’s a reshuffling of the landscapes for renewable energy. States with (1) robust solar resource potential (site quality & availability, and supporting regulations) as well as (2) strong local incentives will rise to the top. States that relied on the ITC or PTC to close financial gaps will find themselves out of favor.
Winners: States with Strong Local Incentives
Here are the key characteristics of states that remain attractive for solar development after the removal of federal incentives:
- High retail electricity prices or robust wholesale power markets
- State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) with solar carve-outs, also known as Clean Energy Standards (CES)
- Tradable SREC (Solar Renewable Energy Credit) markets
- State or utility-level procurement programs for clean energy
- Simplified interconnection and permitting processes
These factors combine to form strong revenue streams even without federal support. Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland lead this category.
Losers: States Dependent on Federal Support
In contrast, states that:
- Lack state-level clean energy targets
- Have minimal or no REC markets
- Rely on wholesale energy prices alone
- Have high land or labor costs but low solar resource
…will become much less attractive without the ITC or PTC. Some Midwestern and Southeastern states fall into this category and may see solar development slow dramatically unless new local incentives emerge.
What Happens Next?
- Capital will flow to fewer states.Investors will prioritize low-risk, high-margin markets with clear state support.
- Developers will consolidate pipelines.Projects in marginal states may be abandoned in favor of more lucrative opportunities elsewhere.
- State policy will matter more than ever.Expect a renewed focus on passing state-level incentives to replace lost federal support.
- Utility-scale solar will compete harder.Projects will need strong power purchase agreements (PPAs) or participate in ISO/RTO markets that reward clean energy.
- Battery storage development is poised to accelerate.Unlike solar, standalone energy storage projects are excluded from the provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill and will continue to qualify for the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC). This sustained incentive support positions battery storage as an increasingly attractive asset class for developers and investors looking to hedge risk and secure stable returns amid evolving energy policy dynamics.
A More Competitive, Selective Energy Future Under the BBB
The BBB won’t kill the solar industry—but it will mature it. Without the blanket support of federal incentives, only the strongest markets will thrive. Developers will be forced to prioritize efficiency, accuracy in forecasting, and smart siting decisions.
Solar isn’t going away. It’s just entering a more competitive phase—where the economics speak louder than the subsidies. Under this phase, we will see a shift of values with developers gravitating toward states that offer more robust state-level incentives for solar development.
-Modified excerpts from “The Impact of the Big Beautiful Bill on Renewable Energy”, 7-3-25, by Yoann Hispa, Landgate
Accelerating solar projects so they can begin construction before 12-31-2026 & the sunsetting tax credits is of extreme importance.
Let Title Leader eliminate weeks of due diligence delays per project.
With no subscription fees, there’s no reason not to see a demo today.
